Solana Predictions

How it works

Parlay-style prediction coupons on Solana, settled against a self-bootstrapping LP.

The protocol lets a user place multiple bets into a single coupon. The odds of the final coupon are the product of each individual leg's odds. Pricing, trades, and execution piggyback on the Jupiter Predict market, the protocol does not run its own orderbook, matching engine, or oracle. Coupons execute atomically thanks to Jito bundles: every leg lands in the same bundle or none of them land. A single coupon can hold up to 5 legs.

The protocol charges no fee on placing a bet.

The LP and $BET

The LP bootstraps itself from zero using the Martingaler mechanism (whitepaper). All coupons face the LP directly, and the LP grows over time from cumulative user losses. If the LP goes insolvent, it issues debt into a queue, which pays out as soon as the LP receives funds from another user's loss.

Trading while the LP is low or insolvent is incentivised: $BET mint fastest in that regime, and the queue pays out automatically as future losses refill the LP.

$BET is the LP fee-claim token, minted per dollar of user loss. There is no way to deposit directly into the LP; the only path to exposure is through losing coupons that mint $BET for you. The mint rate is a flat 100 $BET per $1 of LP gain while the LP is below $2M, then decays asymptotically past that point.

Staked $BET earns jupUSD from two sources, both flowing from the LP, never from the user:

  1. A share of LP revenue, every settlement that credits the LP carves a small slice for stakers continuously. The user pays nothing extra; this is a cut of the LP's revenue, not a trading fee.
  2. LP excess sweep, once the LP balance climbs above the $5M staker reward cap, every dollar of further LP gain past that point is fully distributable to staker.

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